“None of us know what the future looks like.
We don’t know what we’re doing. No one knows what they’re doing. Mark Zuckerberg doesn’t know what he’s fucking doing and he’s spending billions!”
These were the words from another founder in the XR space I was talking with recently about their product roadmap and the industry as a whole.
My startup is doing well. We made it over a year, received some VC funding, are figuring a bunch of things out, closing some deals, brokering new partners, etc etc.
But sometimes I feel like we don’t know what we’re doing.
It’s the nature of emmerging technology. You never really know how exactly it’ll evolve, how the market will react, what breakthroughs will change the game.
The foremost experts in any emmerging space don’t really know what they’re doing or how it’s going to pan out, they just happen to be part of pushing it forward.
That’s the excitement, and sometimes the danger of this, we have no idea how it’ll pan out, and any potentially negative consequences.
While the shufflling at OpenAI was some fun drama to watch, and I’m kinda glad Sam is back in the main driver seat, none of us know how exactly AI will evolve and what will happen when we create an AGI. Not even Sam Altman and he’s spending billions.
Best we can do is keep pushing it forward and be part of it.
The Singularity is likely to incur soonish, and at the long end of the prediction within most of our lifetimes.
Not sure what the Singularity is? Let me ask ChatGPT for you,
Daniel
Hey ChatGPT, can you give me a short definition of "The Singularity" for a reader that follows the tech space, but may not already know what the singularity is or will be?
ChatGPT
Certainly! "The Singularity" refers to a hypothetical future moment in technology and artificial intelligence when machines or computers become so advanced and intelligent that they surpass human intelligence and capabilities. It's often associated with the idea that once this point is reached, technological progress could accelerate rapidly and unpredictably, fundamentally changing the course of human civilization. The concept is popularized by futurists like Ray Kurzweil and has been a topic of speculation and debate in the tech and science communities.
(actual prompt and response from ChatGPT)
Irony of asking ChatGPT for the definition aside, essentially The Singularity hinges on when exactly we create AIs that are generally intelligent and capable of self improvement - an AGI - Artificial General Intelligence.
ChatGPT, for example, is not generally intelligent. It’s intelligent within it’s defined narrow scope of capabilities, but looking at how fast it is improving it’s not hard to see how an AGI could be created in the nearish future.
The hardest part is we just don’t know what happens next. The AI could wipe us out, the AI could bring about a new amazing era of abundance, the AI could ignore us and go off to live in the internet and just do it’s own thing. There could be one singular, godlike AGI, multiple competing AIs. We could merge with them and implant in our brains, we don’t know.
None of us know, not even the experts.
More on the singularity
A well-written, well researched article from one of my favorite writers here on Substack, Tomas Pueyo:
An absolutely insane novel that still holds up after many years, if you like sci-fi, you should read this:
A review from Luners
“This book certainly has flaws in character development and some peculiar verbiage, but on the whole it is the single best summation of all of the transhuman/posthuman science fiction themes in one package. If you had to read only one book about the technological singularity, read this one (due apologies to Verner Vinge).
The story spans several generations of a 'family' from just before the singularity until well past it. As with all Charles Stross books, the tone is cheeky, irreverent, and slightly manic, all of which produces a very engrossing read that makes this book hard to put down. And some of the ideas espoused in this book, especially what lies ahead in the post-singularity world, represent by far the strangest and most entertaining fiction I have read in a long time.
Although this may be an odd comparison, I felt that this book did for transhuman/posthuman genre what Neuromancer by William Gibson did for the cyberpunk genre- both built a well defined new world in which to tell weird tales and set the benchmark against which all other novels in their respective genre must measure themselves.”
Buy on Amazon (not an affiliate link, just a good book)
🏢 return to the office is dead
An economist from Stanford has done some research and yeah, those of us that aren’te going back just aren’t going back. WFH is here to stay.
🚲 ebikes cut more oil demand than EVs
In a surprise to no one living in a major city, ebikes are dope
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see you next time
completely in agreement...we have no idea! (And yes, E-bikes are taking over.)